Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Thus, we have begun the 2022 season and we thought we’d take a look around at the various predictions.
There are two main areas of tropical development that impact our region of Texas: the Atlantic basin and the Pacific basin. In somewhat of a “hot” take, I would contend that we see more actual, tangible impacts from the Pacific than we do the Atlantic/Gulf. But overall for the State of Texas the latter is more influential than the former. With La Niña conditions existing in the Pacific Ocean regions that does mean something for us in terms of tropical weather: conditions in the Atlantic/Gulf region more conductive to tropical development.
So let’s take a look at what some of the best known experts are saying about what we can expect. We will start with NOAA who is calling for above normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. They’re forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). They add that they have a 70% degree of confidence in this forecast (below).
Next, we will see what the experts at Colorado State University have to say. Now you may be thinking “um, why do we care what Colorado State has to say? They’re in the mountains, what do they know?” Well, thanks to the pioneering research work done by Dr. Bill Gray at CSU in the 1980s, the university has continued that tradition of cutting-edge science on how the tropical seasons are influenced by a variety of atmospheric factors. How long have they been issuing hurricane season forecasts? Well, they started when “Billie Jean” by Michael Jackson and “Every Breath You Take” by the Police topped the music charts and Ronald Reagan was our president. Some 39 years to be exact! They tend to be quite good at what they do. And this year they believe we’ll see a well-above average season of activity. See the two images below, including the second image showing the breakdown of states and the odds of a storm coming within 50 miles of that state’s coastline. Texas is fairly high up on the percentages which is a bit alarming.
There are, of course, other hurricane season forecasts that are issued by various outlets. Interestingly enough, many of these have similar numbers on what they expect. For example, The Weather Channel expect an above average season with 20 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The Farmers Almanac forecast says 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. And Accuweather predicts 16-20 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. So all in all, everyone seems to agree that we will see above normal activity in the Atlantic basin for hurricane season. The bigger question of course is where will these storms go? Forecasts and prevailing wisdom quickly diminish in accuracy when we get to this point! Of course, all it takes is one major hurricane to “make” a season.
Next time we will take a look at how the tropics have impacted our area over the years and look at some specific examples in weather history. We might even look at some of the analog years for this current tropical season and see what happened in those years. In this case, an “analog year” is a year of activity which is referenced in a forecast in that similar conditions existed then as they do now.
Oh, how could we forget … here are the names for the Atlantic basin storms!
