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Fall 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Published: Sun, September 25, 2022 5:03 pm - By: Michael Lyttle

For those of us who live in Travis County, the first real cold front of fall along with the arrival of the season itself never come soon enough.  We feel like we did about Christmas when we were kids … we just couldn’t wait for the big day to arrive!  All too often while much of the nation is pumpkin spicing it, we’re still sweating, and our drink of choice is the summery ice-cold lemonade.

So that’s why I was eager to sign up for and watch our local National Weather Service office’s Fall 2022 Seasonal Outlook.  What will our fall weather be like and when is that first big cold front going to arrive?

NWS meteorologist Keith White gave us some of those answers and a few other clues as well. Unfortunately, they were ones we weren’t so crazy to hear . . . tidbits such as “warm and dry,” “continued drought,” and “increased fire weather risk by late autumn.”  My hopes of occasional cool north breezes, gentle day-long rain events, and chilly nights were crushed like a Longhorns fan on a football Saturday.   

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised coming off a historic summer where the consecutive months of June and July were the hottest ever (at the Camp Mabry reporting site).  And we can’t forget this will be the third consecutive La Nina fall for us.  In general La Nina for us generally (but not always) means warmer and drier than normal.  So, the trend has not been our friend. 

Keith did point out that there will be periods of below normal temps and above normal precip, but that the overall average is likely to end up as mentioned above.  But enough from me, check out Keith’s excellent briefing for yourself.

Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p5kjaiK1Aw

Also, here is a link to our NWS office’s website for additional information: Austin/San Antonio, TX (weather.gov)